Re: 90,000 HD DVD players sold in one weekend

Bubbles: Your comment was no better than xplaytendo's.

The fact is, Bluray's advantage in disc sales is SMALL compared to the whole DVD business, and it can easily be overtaken by HD DVD if sales pick up HD DVD player sales have picked up (obviously, as you are trying to argue over what the huge weekend sales numbers actually mean). It does not mean HD DVD will win, but its far from dead. Infact, I doubt Paramount/Dreamworks would have gone exclusive if it were only for the payoff....because one would want to sell more discs. I'd have to bet they were already in the know on where player prices were going, and the prices definately have moved players in one weekend. And no, you will not see disc sales jump for a few weeks because of a few simple reasons:
1) Christmas presents, alot of these units will be beneith a tree
2) HD DVDs in box will slow peoples purchase of movies
3) Rebate discs show up in sales, but it takes 5-8 weeks for them to show up in the mail, which would likely mean 5-8 weeks to show up on stats (and no, obviously not on amazon stats)

So many are right, 4th quarter sales are to be watched, but I'd have to say:
4th quarter disc sales are probably less meaningful than 4th quarter player sales.
1st quarter 08 disc sales is where the evidence will be

and just remember, HD DVD and Bluray being like 1% or less of the overall movie market means neither currently matters, either could win.

I'm just betting on HD DVD and beleive market trends will show thats the best bet....then again, I have 7 years experience in business and marketing and have a pretty firm grasp of what happens when you have a product selling for 1/4 the price of the competitor that does basically the exact same thing. In the end, its about market penetration. Disc sales will follow whoever has the most units. And lets not count the PS3's as a 1:1. As much as I tell people Sony has pushed it as a Bluray player (most people here disagree and tell me they've seen little outside of advertising it as a gaming system), I don't think a majority of PS3 owners bought it to use for Bluray, they bought it for games. Now that Ratchet & Clank and a few other good games are FINALLY showing up, people will have less of a need to justify their PS3's with movies. In the end we'll see, but I don't think the PS3 will really have much impact on the format war. Its going to come down to people who watch movies, people who have money for nice screens to watch them on, and people who want to repurchase ALL their movies they already own to justify the money spent on all the HD components. Those people don't play games because they typically have jobs, and those people buy stand alone units. No, no stats to back that up, but plenty of people on this forum, supporters of HD and BD have both stated the same thing.

In reply to "bubblebathgirl's" comment that blu ray HOLDS MORE DATA... us utterly stupid!!! So what if it does hold more data, REALITY CHECK bub, it's an HD video media THAT IS ONLY IN READ-ONLY format!!! No average consumer can or will take advantage of A ROM video media!

Get your facts straight & provide sound reasoning. No average consumer will pay high prices for a technology that ONLY MAKES A VERY SLIGHT difference in video candy. NO AVERAGE CONSUMER. That's a fact... regardless of it's storage capacity. Average consumer comprise largely of at least 95% of the country. They will not pay DOUBLE for something that they can get for under $200.

Best example is the Nintendo Wii. Already made profits TEN-FOLD waaay ahead of the other TWO GIANT gaming consoles.

If standalone blu ray players don't match the standalone HD-DVD player's price this holiday season... standalone blu ray players will go with the Do do bird.

It will only exist on the PS3.

Oh man you still don't get it. I'm not telling you that you won't notice the difference between 1080i and 1080p. I'm telling you that there is NO DIFFERENCE for movies.

Maybe this will open your mind:
http://blog.hometheatermag.com/geoffreymorrison/0807061080iv1080p/

[Post edited by Thaek on Nov 7, 2007]

I seem to notice people keep comenting on sales in Q1 2008 for HD DVDs due the HD DVD players being under the tree. But how many PS3's will be under the tree? Probably more than I would ever dream possible, which leads me become skeptic over wether or not these huge sales will make a difference if Sony can push a few extra PS3 sales through. More PS3 xmas pezzies may lead to more Q1 blu ray sales.

Matt,

That is a good point.
Where I live, in the minneapolis area, most people who wanted a PS3 have one. The attitude around here seems to be the PS3 doesn't match the hype, and even Sony friends who swore they'd never get a 360 have picked them up. The PS3 price cut helps them, but I don't know how much in the end. Game developers are picking the Xbox 360 and Wii platforms right now because thats where they can make the most money and the PS3 is seeing some pretty horrible ports. The PS3 is finally getting some decent games, but...there is always the question of too little too late. The PS3's cell processor, while powerful, is not designed in the typical way game developers program for. If a game developer wants to make a game that runs on Xbox, Wii, PC, and (maybe) PS3, it will be written in straight C code, maybe with the option of symetrical multiprocessing for the xbox 360 and PCs but the Cell isn't symetrical....it doesn't have anything similar on the other platforms, requiring a complete rewrite of many parts of game engines to run on 7 specialized cores. This just isnt popular when it costs more to develop for the least popular platform. Again, we'll see if it changes, but its hard when its the odd-ball platform with the smallest market share.

In response to Thaek's comment: You're absolutely right... 1080i vs 1080p difference in movies is none-existent. A scenario of the average Joe, watching a movie, 4-5 feet away from a 46-inch hdtv, will not discern A DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE between a 1080i movie, or the same movie in 1080p. JUST PLAIN DUMB to assume that the blu ray camp, will move their inventory if they sell their standalone's for at least $400 each.

Oh yeah, HD-A30 at circuitcity.com is now selling for under $300 after rebate & 10% discount. That box plays movies in 1080p format. Do the math.

The average consumer does not care about the TECHY goodies inside a box, if the competition next door can provide the same goods, FOR AT LEAST HALF THE PRICE... regardless of blu ray's studio backing. The studios does not decide the average consumer's nextgen HD format. The Average consumer decides the nextgen HD format based on LOWER PRICE. Given high gasoline prices (that drives cost of living up the roof) including nationwide housing slump, the average Joe & Jane will think TWICE about shelling $400 for a gadget box, when they know they can get the OTHER best thing, for under $200.

I thought we had put this whole 1080i vs. 1080p business behind us a long time ago, but I guess the format war requires that both sides trot it out again for advertising purposes. The only authoritative test I've ever read on the subject was from "Sound & Vision" magazine over a year ago, and they concluded in their lab tests that there was no visible difference between the two processes. Folks, recognize advertising hype when you see it. Both Sony and Toshiba are pushing so-called advances that nobody is actually going to see or hear (unless you've just spent four or five grand on a new home theater, and then you'll see improvements whether they exist or not).

Besides, the vast majority of consumers don't even have 1080p capability. The last I read, most HD televisions only accepted an interlaced picture, and well over half of those sets are 720 max. Wal-Mart sells something like a third of all the HD televisions in America, and they stock primarily inexpensive 720 sets.

It reminds me of the whole Version 1.3 standard for audio and the expensive new receivers with internal HD decoders. Use the analogue outs on a good high-def player, and you'll get the same results. The further joke being that most of the folks clamoring about these supposed advancements don't even have the televisions or the speakers worthy of noticing any differences even if there were any.

John

agreed xplay, there are definately factors outside of the movie market that make a difference. Infact, one could say its why neither format has taken off as well...no one has money. But in the end, that hurts Sony more than it does HDDVD

agreed john, i dont see why they dont lay it to rest.

I'll buy 1080p if it matters to me, hell I could see situations where a 720p player would be acceptable to people with smaller screens. But you know, it doesnt cost anything different to make a player handle 1080i so everyone gets it anyways.

It doesn't matter if some players have lower end features, hell most people don't buy the most expensive. But the Discs are still capable of it! So oh lets cry about players not being 1080p at $99. You know, in 2-3 years when they break, they will be! and the discs they buy over the 3 years will still be capable of 1080p.