Re: Toshiba, MS, and Panasonic started a working commitee on DVD2 format, recreating HD-DVD experience on DVD

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But consumers don't have reason to switch to Blu-Ray.

thats ok, nobody have a real reason to switch to HDtv, but you can already see stores buying larger volumes of HDtv and lowering SDtv stock. The studios if anything will force the consumers hand in order to keep profits up. Studios stand to make more on BR if DVD drops to such a price. Sure it will take a while to change over, but the studios will be compelled to make the switch. First lower DVD output and steadily revving up to full HDdisc production.

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Remember that most consumers already don't see the difference between upscaled DVD and Blu-Ray anyway. Super Upconversion makes it near impossible to do so fo 99% of population.

absolutely true. However don't think that people will settle for anything less than "true HD" if a super upconverting box runs 200$+. Trust me, the word true (which i expect it to be marketed as such) makes a lot of impact with customers. NObody wants to think they bought something subpar. Although geeks and nerds such as myself and many of you (not an insult) who know the fact is largely untrue and almost indiscernable, the public always wants the best, that is guaranteeable. Just as a consumer would rather buy something 1080p than 1080i even though by and large it is the exact same thing.

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This is a DVD Forum initiative. Of course DVD Forum wants to sell lots of DVDs, not downloads.

that is the case, however i think you are misjudging microsofts actual goal here. Of course more DVD's will be sold, but I think they are starting to realize the change that is going to happen. Just look at it this way. DVD as not changed much since inception. Now with HDDVD looming, improvements are being made. Sounds to me like they know something bad is going down. They are accepting the inevitable at this point, and are allowing MS to make them some more money before that happens. MS knows this too. By spending a wad of cash, they will influence the downward trend of both formats.

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Microsoft and Panasonic(a shocker!!!).

i've read the post thx, and several other articles already. However, by and large, the chief name in this whole scheme of things is toshiba. Again i will restate that the really informed consumer such as anyone here (bar spoon and xplay ) know who the backers are. Public wise, its Toshiba at the helm.
That number was obtained by dividing the number of HDTV sets sold by the number of household. HDTV owning houseyholds tend to have multiple. Exact count is less than 20%.
if 20% is correct then that would mean that nobody owns just one HDtv. Or that many households have 3HDtv's which i don't find very likely.
36% penetration going to 18% penetration means thatof those 18 actual households they each own two HDtv's. my math could be off but i find that unlikely. I know many many people with just 1 HDtv. The only possible justification of those with just 1 HDtv would mean that just as many people that have 1 HDtv, have 3. So if 20 million people have 1 set, then another 20 million have 3 sets. I find that unlikely.

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It isn't

the trend is towards HD. now that the trend is building momentum, they decide to release an upgrade. If this could have been done before, then why hasn't it. It is to combat BR, by the same people who were BR rivals in the first place, and one company who is already antiHDmedia.

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And most HDTV owners subscribe to SD cable service only.

so what. those people did not buy hd for tv, they bought it for games or for movies or for some other type of platform. What you said may be ironic, but it does not determine the trend. A lot of people buy ipods. i'm sure a lot of them don't buy music from itunes though a good portion of them do. Not really saying anything.

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More like $150 and lower.

Still, BR is not going to stand by and be upset by DVD, they will take their losses and lower the price, it's as simple as that. They still have a lot of money to make back, they won't simply cut their losses for something they could easily adjust.

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Well, doesn't work like that if CD and DVD royalty history is anything to go by. And Blu-Ray royalty is starting very high.

again, quite on point. However the cd and dvd had very strong adoption reasons. BR committee (again) will not stand by and leave the royalty that high should they determine that their investment is in danger. cd and dvd were never in danger, they were revolutionary. this war is not so much, and there is much more competition by a lot of strong backers.

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Supply issue

that is corporate spin. It has been more than two months already and i can go into any store in Massachusetts and find an xbox360. Chinese New Year vacation? could yu reiterate? I fail to see how that would affect sales around the globe for 4 months now
not only that but look at this weeks chart. ps3 only 6k units behind in america. compare that to the trend of Europe, other countries, and Japan, where the ratio of ps3 to 360 is double, double,quintuple, respectively. amounting in total for more sales than in the US.

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Because SCEI has 2.5 million unsold units available.

i dunno what that proves....

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No. SCEI's still losing money on PS3 and there is a gentlemen(cartel)'s agreement to not drop prices below certain points.

You are ignoring the point. I said with increased adoption, royalties would drop. Thereby all BR companies could lower there gentlemanly price. and i've already posted a link here in this thread that shows sony is selling ps3 at cost right now, and their games market went into the black a couple months ago. if you need another link i will post it.

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SCEI itself already announced that they are staying above $400 by annoucing pricing of June bundle.

exactly. and this is the way hdtv will make the jump. By offering HDtv's at the same price point as a great SDtv and simply including more features. Sony is doing no different by offering an upgraded ps3 for the same price with more available.

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MS pushed for HDi implementation on BD, both before the format war and even as BD 2.0 was being put together. The theory of MS trying to delay BR for the sake of pushing movie downloads seems to be more of an urban legend.

Microsoft have directly stated that they really have no interest in HDmedia, and that their prime concern is downloads. If their backing of such anti-BR platforms is simply coincidence, then it is a pretty strong one. Like a board member is like "hey i just realized that if BR fails we can possibly take over with downloads when everyone is sick of the format war!" I give them more credit than that.

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Though, I don't think the PS3's sales alone are going make a huge impact on the idea that royalties may be reduced.

i'm simply assuming that for every dollar brforum makes on a ps3, they get closer to breaking even on the development (which sony put a lot of money into btw and i'm sure wouldn't care much about the royalties if it interfered with sales).

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Arguably, MS may have supply constraints

well i'm sure everyone has more supply during the holidays.... i think this is simply more spin saying "we are selling less units now, but we had more units available in december" firstly they still did not beat the ps3 in sales for december, and secondly i'm sure sony is not making as many ps3's at this time of year either....

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You mean the study group formed LAST YEAR? WTF? You mean the OP just made up all this stuff?

Looking further into it, it would appear they approved the scope of the study:

http://dvdforum.org/41scmtg-resolution.htm

"Approval of
The scope of WG-12:
"To study and specify network applications and related network specification of DVD Forum formats, make recommendations for better interoperability and functionality of network connected DVD Forum specified devices and content, and communicate on relevant recommendations with other standard creation organizations""

With the author of the article suggesting:

"What that means in non-Forum legalese, I’m told by sources familiar with the plans, is that the new working group will look for ways to incorporate some of the same next-gen functionality developed for HD DVD into a DVD 2.0 format, including the HDi interactive layer and the advanced network connectivity."

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Gosh, no wonder it's not being talked about on any other forum!

So how does that invalidate any points made (for or against)? Another attempt top redirect the argumenbt away from the actual points being discussed I suppose? But if it helps:

http://www.highdefforum.com/showthread.php?t=67949&page=3

Albeit, the discussion isn't focused around it, there are some discussions about the "2.0" format...

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Microsoft have directly stated that they really have no interest in HDmedia, and that their prime concern is downloads. If their backing of such anti-BR platforms is simply coincidence, then it is a pretty strong one. Like a board member is like "hey i just realized that if BR fails we can possibly take over with downloads when everyone is sick of the format war!" I give them more credit than that.

Their concern is likely two fold. They could likely care less about HD media in that of itself. They are likely more interested in incorporating it with their primary business (PC operating systems). But part of their plan is to try and become the center of every household's media center. The HDi certainly helps business, but managed copies are another big issue for them (not sure if HDi specs actually address the managed copy or if it is considered a seperate spec). The question then is how would things change if BD adopted HDi and managed copies to MS's desire?

Here's an article from about a year ago that touches on this very issue. It is a MS employee who states it, but it makes sense to me:

http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/feature_microsofthddvdinterview.html

"As it became clearer and clearer that the studios and manufacturers might be splitting into two separate next-gen camps, why did Microsoft decide to side with HD DVD over Blu-ray?

For a while, we were neutral. Both of the formats had been testing with our codec technology. But for us, there were two technologies in particular we cared about for a next-gen format: interactivity, and content security. In terms of interactivity, Blu-ray looked for a while as if they were going to adopt the same technology as HD DVD, which is called HDi. And on security, it looked like Blu-ray was also going to use the same encryption technology, which is AACS.
Unfortunately, in both of those areas Blu-ray deviated from those plans. Which meant that if we wanted to support Blu-ray, we had to implement two completely different authoring systems to support both. And that, combined with the manufacturing issues we saw with Blu-ray versus HD DVD, pushed us over the edge to side with HD DVD. This was about, a little over a year ago."

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i'm simply assuming that for every dollar brforum makes on a ps3, they get closer to breaking even on the development (which sony put a lot of money into btw and i'm sure wouldn't care much about the royalties if it interfered with sales).

Sure, but in that case I think it would be a demand issue where the lack of it might force their hand. Which is much different than suggesting that Sony will recover their investment as a result of the PS3's sales.

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well i'm sure everyone has more supply during the holidays.... i think this is simply more spin saying "we are selling less units now, but we had more units available in december" firstly they still did not beat the ps3 in sales for december, and secondly i'm sure sony is not making as many ps3's at this time of year either....

As I said, it is arguable. I can find the 360 I want if I tried, but it would seem some are not finding them as easily as they would like. I searched the web the other day in fact and many brick and mortars are out of certain models at various locations, and some either have units in stores or online, but not necessarily both. And these are at major chains.

The NPD numbers suggest there should be a higher demand for the 360...at least as a gaming system. The only PS3 title that appears in the top 10 of NPD's sales statistics for software is Devil May Cry 4. At that, the 360 version is selling more copies of it. COD4 for the PS3 is not up there at all. Which is currently the most popular XBL game. This, along with 4 other 360 titles in the top ten would baffle me as to why 360 sales have dropped to below pre-Halo3 numbers. The 07 holiday season has been quite good for 360 games so I don't see whay it should trail unless there is some truth to the supply contraints MS claims. Given that they were still able to sell 254,600 units, it would appear it's not depleted. But many gamers are picky about which SKU they want and may be having difficulty finding them. Especially, locally where most people want to buy them.

first kwik i just wanted to express that i find your writing and expressions very diplomatic. A far cry from some others that post here frequently. It is much appreciated that you make valid points and do emphasize that some points are debatable. You and deadmeat seem to really have no ulterior motives for your opinions. thank you for that.
Now, you mentioned that there was a large dropoff in sales, and that 360 has quite a few games in the top ten. This subject is also debatable, as we really have no way of knowing how many core gamers belong to each console. What I would guess, is that 360 owners are more heavily "core" than Ps3 gamers. I find that many 360 games (shooters) generally reach top ten. Now, whether games other than shooters find their way out of obscurity on the same level as the ps3 does is what would be interesting to find out.
to reiterate: If 360 owners predominantly buy shooters (made up number here) say 80%, and only 20% buy the other games. Is it true that ps3 gamers follow the same demographic? or do they buy at a rate more closely to 50%/50%? that would mean more games would make the top ten for the 360. If that is the case, then I would wager that it is this reason for the 360 dropoff rate in the past months, seeing as how no key shooters have come out. We shall see if rainbow six does anything to change this number which i think was supposed to come out today.
Again though, i will have to look for some pretty hard to find info, should i make that statement more concrete.

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first kwik i just wanted to express that i find your writing and expressions very diplomatic. A far cry from some others that post here frequently. It is much appreciated that you make valid points and do emphasize that some points are debatable. You and deadmeat seem to really have no ulterior motives for your opinions. thank you for that.

Thanks for the comment. I just like a good discussion/debate. There is no reason people can't remain adult about a difference of opinion...

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Now, you mentioned that there was a large dropoff in sales, and that 360 has quite a few games in the top ten. This subject is also debatable, as we really have no way of knowing how many core gamers belong to each console. What I would guess, is that 360 owners are more heavily "core" than Ps3 gamers. I find that many 360 games (shooters) generally reach top ten. Now, whether games other than shooters find their way out of obscurity on the same level as the ps3 does is what would be interesting to find out.
to reiterate: If 360 owners predominantly buy shooters (made up number here) say 80%, and only 20% buy the other games. Is it true that ps3 gamers follow the same demographic? or do they buy at a rate more closely to 50%/50%? that would mean more games would make the top ten for the 360. If that is the case, then I would wager that it is this reason for the 360 dropoff rate in the past months, seeing as how no key shooters have come out. We shall see if rainbow six does anything to change this number which i think was supposed to come out today.
Again though, i will have to look for some pretty hard to find info, should i make that statement more concrete.

Anything is possible. And while I haven't looked over a complete games list for both consoles, last I observed the games library diversity for both aren't too different from each other at the moment. I believe the 360 actually had an edge here.

Good luck if you decide to research that one. It would require some extensive data that might not be easy to get. But I'm all ears if you do...

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The studios if anything will force the consumers hand in order to keep profits up.

Well, that didn't work too well with music and LD market.

Content holders cannot push a format that consumers dislike.

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First lower DVD output and steadily revving up to full HDdisc production.

You mean killing $23 billion golden goose called DVD...

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the public always wants the best, that is guaranteeable.

Not true. Average consumer is extremely cost sensitive. Walmart didn't become the king of retailers any other way.

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i think you are misjudging microsofts actual goal here.

Microsoft's goal is to contain the spread of Java by pushing HDi powered DVD2 in place of Blu-Ray.

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I know many many people with just 1 HDtv.

Of course many have only 1 set, but many also have multiple. Overall household penetration rate is less than 20%.

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so what. those people did not buy hd for tv,

You mean who are content with SD cable and DVD are suddenly going to rush out and buy Blu-Ray players?

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Still, BR is not going to stand by and be upset by DVD, they will take their losses and lower the price

One thing BDA cartel won't do is to take losses. For whose best interest, Sony's?

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BR committee (again) will not stand by and leave the royalty that high should they determine that their investment is in danger.

You expect this from the same bunch that charges the highest royalty rate in history of CE product?

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that is corporate spin. It has been more than two months already and i can go into any store in Massachusetts and find an xbox360.

Not the case across the USA.

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Chinese New Year vacation? could yu reiterate?

In early January, China was hit by worst snowstorm in 100 years for a month. Then followed by a two-week Chinese New Year vacation.

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I fail to see how that would affect sales around the globe for 4 months now

November and December sales were beyond MS projection and they ran out of supplies by mid December. MS has been trying to restock desperately ever since.

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not only that but look at this weeks chart. ps3 only 6k units behind in america. compare that to the trend of Europe,

One thing you learn to do when you are a serious gamer is to completely ignore VGchartz, since they fabricate data.

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i dunno what that proves....

Both nintendo and Microsoft are supply constrained. SCEI isn't. They have millions of unsold PS3s to take advantage of rival's shortage.

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You are ignoring the point. I said with increased adoption, royalties would drop.

CD and DVD royalty rate dropped like 7~8 years after the format's launch. Don't expect BDA to shave a penny off $30(drive)~60(player) royalty for a long long time.

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Thereby all BR companies could lower there gentlemanly price.

BDA cartel members don't pay full royalty rate.

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and i've already posted a link here in this thread that shows sony is selling ps3 at cost right now

So you trust somebody's estimation over Sony Chief Financial Officer's word that they are still losing money on PS3 and hope to break even by March 2009?

Wow on the quotes...

Can we open a new thread? This 19 pages are getting tiresome...

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Sony and the other BR committee guys start offering 10+ free movies with a player on a month to month basis, i think it is safe to say that BR is for keeps.

Well I'm sure the they can and probably will bring back the free movies promo. Either way its too early to say at this point but to argue I'm sure buying a 2.0 player will have their own promo, could be get 10 or more free movies as they are likely to cost less.

Just the rumors of this 2.0 format could easily put people back on the fence on what players to buy or wait to see this new format.

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CD and DVD royalty rate dropped like 7~8 years after the format's launch.

This is incorrect. The DVD6C first lowered royalties for DVD effective January 1, 2002 by 33%, and a later deal was struck between the 6C group and the Chinese government the following March to further reduce royalties to less than 4% of player cost. Royalties of one category or another have been reduced nearly every year since the end of 2001.

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So how does that invalidate any points made (for or against)? Another attempt top redirect the argumenbt away from the actual points being discussed I suppose?

Invalidate what? How can something that doesn't exist and not even rumored to ever be in existance be "invalidated"? The OP said that a new DVD2 format is in the works that will require a new player out later this year or the next that will debute for $150 and have "Super Upconversion", with a native resolution of 9 hundred and something progressive lines.

It turns out the OP was just making this stuff up, or playing "what if". It's fine to speculate and play "what if", but not talk about pricing and features as if this were anything more than simply BS.

And it's not my job to "invalidate" claims of the Easter Bunny. It's up to the one making such claims to substantiate them. And in this case zero substanciation was offered on any "detail" put forth in this thread. And my point that this new DVD2 format was not being discussed anywhere else is relevant, since if any real "insider" spread such a rumor, even you know the AVSForum would be all over it.

[Post edited by Skyhawk on Mar 18, 2008]