Blu-ray interest rising, but slowly

We need people buying not just interested. Hard for companies to make money of they're just interested.

Remember, hi-def discs are an upgrade, not a brand new unknown novelty...

I think it's interesting that a now dead format was gaining so much ground - grabbing so much interest... And now we're like east German's after the wall went up.

No offence to Blu-ray but if you look at the graph closely, it actually says "HD Media" not just Blu-ray. Is this type of manipulation of data that drives the masses to make/take the wrong desicions. The title of the article shoud've been: "HD Media Interest rising..." not "Blu-ray interest rising...".

Just because HD-DVD production stopped it doesn't make it non-existent.

Quote:
No offence to Blu-ray but if you look at the graph closely, it actually says "HD Media" not just Blu-ray. Is this type of manipulation of data that drives the masses to make/take the wrong desicions. The title of the article shoud've been: "HD Media Interest rising..." not "Blu-ray interest rising...".

So what would be the "wrong decision" in this case (I mean, considering that Blu-ray is now the only HD format with any possible future)? For anyone to be interested in getting into hi-def media at all? Is that what you want to see happen as opposed to Blu-ray being the next big thing? Good God, I should hope you don't hate a format so blindly that you'd sacrifice HD altogether rather than see it succeed.

Quote:
Just because HD-DVD production stopped it doesn't make it non-existent.

Um...actually, by very definition, yes it does. LMAO How about "a few titles trickling into the marketplace between now and when HD DVD is completely and utterly abandoned at the retail level doesn't make it a viable format". That's one hell of a lot more realistic.

[Post edited by CroweDawg1121 on Mar 18, 2008]

To be quite honest the graph doesn't represent the market to date. After all 2006-2007 HD DVD was still around so it was included in the graph. With that said HD DVD was still around and a lot of people that I knew never got interested in the HD media market until Toshiba announced the end of HD DVD.

One last point which should be noted is that the DVD finalization happened in 1995, and to my recollection there was production of DVD's then as well. Although b/c of the format war comparing DVD to HD Media is more like comparing apples to oranges, a more accurate representation would be comparing DVD's 1997-1998 (The year DVD Forum was fully established and DVD started getting attention) and Blu-ray's 2008-2009 (The year when one HD Media was decided). Now if that comparison doesn't show the same growth rate then I would agree Sony is in trouble however I would suspect that it won't.

Unless more and more people start buying big screen TVs or projectors, it is hard to justify going HD. Currently, the majority that is buying Bluray is either enthusiasts or people with a real home theater setup. Honestly, a person with a 37 - 40 inch LCD TV, would not see any major improvement in picture quality while seated lets say 8 feet from the TV. Whether Bluray or a perfect DVD with a decent upconversion will look the same. Unless you have that extra "third vision" capability in your eye, you wouldnt notice any difference.
But, yes, if you have a 65 inch TV, it makes a big difference.

BluandProud said -

Quote:
"One last point which should be noted is that the DVD finalization happened in 1995, and to my recollection there was production of DVD's then as well."

I don't know if that timetable was true (Japan maybe?), but here in North America the first commercial DVD players and discs appeared in 1997 - us LaserDisc owners were particularly aware (and some resentful) of this new competing disc format.

-JIMI (the Voodoo Child)

FYI...

> Sony plans $110 million Investment in their Indiana Blu-ray Manufacturing Plant

Note: this is a major Sony Blu-ray replication plant, and the company has previously spent several hundreds of millions here on BD infrastructure and development costs.

From the last part of the linked report...

According to resolutions for tax abatements filed with the City Council, Sony has a new corporate name for its Terre Haute plant, formerly called Sony Digital Audio Disc Corp.

The new name is Sony DADC US Inc.

Sony's Terre Haute plant currently has 1,183 employees, with 888 hourly workers earning an average of $17.63 per hour, excluding benefits and overtime, plus 295 salaried positions with an average annual salary of $65,607, excluding benefits.

The total annual payroll for its more than 1,100 workers is $51.92 million. Adding the 65 new workers will add $2.82 million to Sony's annual payroll.

Of the estimated 65 new employees, 50 will be hourly permanent positions and 15 salaried permanent positions, according to Sony's filings with the City Council.

-JIMI (the Voodoo Child)

If it's just talking about HD Media interest, could that number include those that are interested in cable/satellite/OTA and downloads? Also, with people's limited understanding of HD Media, could that just be some people's interest in a flat screen tv, since a lot don't seem to understand that you need an HD input signal in order to get HD?

i think the interest is there, but getting into the hd market isnt cheap! there is alot new tech to learn for non tech people. The other day i was at work and someone asked me if they could get hd out of blu ray on there non hd tv! People just need to become more knowledgeable about the hd tech. they think just because they spend 1500 on a new flat screen that is all theyhave to do, they dont think they need the extra cables or hd programming, people think that reg tv will look like hd content just because they have a hd tv. we get alot of returns on hd tv cause of that reason. so i think once people understand the hd tech blu ray will take off

[Post edited by Scionguy05 on Mar 18, 2008]

Quote:
So what would be the "wrong decision" in this case

Ok, perhaps "wrong" is was the wrong word to use, I should've said something like "hasty". You see, I was attacking the manipulation of information used by whomever wrote the article because NDP is displaying HD figures (both formats), but the writer of the article in "interpreting" the figures as if they were Blu only ("Blu-ray interest rising"). If somebody who was still on the fence about SD-DVD and now BD were to see this article, could think that BD is rising well when in reality the figures reflect both formats, not just Blu.

Something like that (about information manipulation) happened to the mid-size city in which I live. The city of about 44,000 has a hospital which was deemed not earthquake safe a couple of years back, so the city put in a ballot two options: 1. to increase taxes to build a new hospital or 2. to close it a force the population to go to the closest hospital which is 25 miles away. So when put that way the public voted to increase taxes and build a new hospital. Now this was not a bad idea, however, it was later found out by the people that federal law prohibits the closure of a district hospital if is the only one within a number of miles and supports a certain amount of people. Well this hospital happened to fit that cathegory. Also later was found that the city council gave the building permit to companies which had contributed to their campaign in the past (special interest).

So you see, that's the point I was trying to convey, and since the NPD group has in the past "leaked" information favoring the Blu-ray Group, I wouldn't be surprise if this was another attempt by Sony to manipulate information in order to lure people into buying Blu-ray.

dont forget, there was no format war for dvd... and most people didn't need a new speaker set/better tv t experience it... these comparisons are ridiculous to be honest...

Yup, that is a major difference that I have cited many times but seems to fall on deaf ears. Bottom line is that in order to truly notice a difference a person would have to invest around 4 figures in a new HD set if they don't already have one (about 2/3 of the current population fall into this category). That is definitely a major obstacle that DVD never had to over-come. As for not being able to see the difference on a 37 to 40" set? Yes and no. If you get a film that is rated as top notch for PQ then the difference definitely is noticeable over Standard DVD being up-converted. I have compared several titles side by side on my 37" Westinghouse and have noticed a difference on titles that fit into this category. Keep in mind this is comparing a high-end Oppo Digital DV-981 up-conversion player via HDMI to the entry line Toshiba HD-A3 via component. So it's not like I am using a crappy up-conversion player.

[Post edited by Jesterrace on Mar 18, 2008]

If the average consumer does not see much difference between a regular up-converting DVD player and a High Definition player then it will be a harder sell for the Blue-ray group and they may have to lower their prices or further improve their product to make it more attractive to the regular consumer.

I think Blu-Ray is going to have a difficult time trying to break into the average consumer's hearts and wallets. Here are a few reasons I think it will be an uphill battle.

1. Yes the picture quality is sharper but unless you have a 50"+ screen, the difference is, for the most part, undetectable.

2. Getting into HD means not only buying the TV, but buying the $200 HDMI cables, $400-$700 for your cable company's cable box, $400 minimum for the Blu-Ray player... and that's if you already own an existing home theatre set-up.

3. The average consumer is not ready to toss out the hard-earned dollars they spent on DVD's in favour of a format which only offers a slightly better picture. Remember, DVD only started to outsell VHS around 2002/2003. It's too soon to jump onto another format for most people.

4. Blu-Ray doesn't offer anything that DVD doesn't already give you. Other than some advanced menu controls there is little extra to offer. I'm surprised at some of the re-issues of films on Blu-Ray that give you the extact same bare-bones versions that the DVD offered.

When DVD came out people were ready for something new. DVD gave consumers good reason to want to upgrade from their old VHS tapes. DVD gave the consumer far superior picture, CD quality sound, audio commentaries, featurettes, deleted scenes, a whole movie on a nice, shiny-looking CD-sized disc, chapter stops, no more rewinding, tapes deteriorating or getting chewed up in the VCR, DVD players became affordable very quickly and new release films were well priced, as opposed to $89.95 VHS prices.

Blu-Ray does not give consumers a comparable advantage over what DVD did to VHS.

5. As far as rentals go, how scratch resistant are the discs? I've seen how badly some of those rental discs get treated. With six times the information on the same-sized disc, a little scratch can probably make the movie unwatchable.

6. With the American economy near the brink of recession, fancy home theater system upgrades are the first thing to be removed from most peoples "want" list.

I think if Blu-Ray really wants to make a dent in the market they should release one version of the movie which contains both a standard DVD along with a "bonus" Blu-Ray disc and sell it at the price of the standard DVD. DVDs are so cheap to produce now that I'm sure it wouldn't hurt the studios bottom line to do this.

That way people will eventually collect enough "free" Blu-Ray discs that they may decide to buy a Blu-Ray player.

There will always be market for consumers who want nothing but the best & can easily afford it. For the majority, I have a feeling they will stick with DVD for many years to come.

I have a feeling Blu-Ray will be what Laserdisc was to VHS. Better quality but never quite caught the interest for most people.

Make and sell movies with two formats in one package, Blu-Ray and standard def, and don't charge double the price. I want to upgrade, but I cannot afford to replace all my DVD players. Why would I buy a movie I can play on only one TV? We have 4 DVD players, 1 portable player, and 2 more if you count computers. Portability is essential to increase the consumer interest and market share. I know of many families like ours that most of the purchased movies are requested by kids in the house. We watch the movie once on the main TV, and then they are watched repeatedly in their rooms. You can't do that with Blu-Ray only movies unless you replace all the players.

I haven't seen a Blu-Ray portable player, and who would want to pay more when you don't get the benefit on 7 or 9 inch screens? So, you buy the latest Disney movie in Blu-Ray and it looks great on the big TV. Your kids can't watch it their rooms, and you can't take it with on trips. If you want to turn off middle class America, make them buy 2 copies of every movie.

While the players aren't cheap, I believe consumers will pay the price if they don't feel like they are being taken by the movie companies. It's like video games. It's not the price of the system as much as it is the cost for each new game. Look who plays these games, young adults with no kids, or older kids with their own money to buy games. Unless you put an HD player in the kid's room, they won't want to buy HD movies. I don't see families buying multiple HD players for a long time at their current prices.

Either sell HD players for $99, or provide standard and Hi-Def formats in the same movie package at a fair cost.