THX Chief Scientist:

Another thread for Tim

"Personally, I think it's too late for Blu-ray. I think consumers will only become interested in replacing DVD when HD movies becomes available on flash memory. Do we really need another spinning format?" he told the magazine.

"In the future I want to be able to carry four to five movies around with me in a wallet, or walk into a store and have someone copy me a movie to a USB device. Stores will like that idea, because it's all about having zero inventory. I don't want to take up shelf space with dozens of HD movies."

"By the time Blu-ray really finds a mass market, we will have 128GB cards. I would guess that getting studios to supply movies on media cards, or offer downloads, will be a lot easier than getting them to sign up to support a disc format." he concluded.

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/thx-chief-scientist-its-too-late-for-blu-ray/5379

[Post edited by Falcon01 on Mar 26, 2008]

Why don't people understand that there will always be a market for physical discs? Downloading, OnDemand, storing movies on memor cards/flash drives or anything else that comes along will definitely have an effect on the sales of physical discs, but will never replace them.

Quote:
Why don't people understand that there will always be a market for physical discs?

Because there will be a market for physical media...but it will be like today with HD DVD. There is a market for HD DVD technically even now, but it's ever shrinking and will soon be gone or be so small (like laserdiscs.) The point is this: Physical media will one day be novelty, and that day is sooner than alot of people are willing to believe.

Quote:
Physical media will one day be novelty, and that day is sooner than alot of people are willing to believe.

The title of this message was concerning the viability of Blu ray as it pertains to competing with USB or some other flash memory. USB will NOT prevent the success of Blu Ray. You may be correct that the physical media in the form of the disc is headed toward the dodo bird, but it will be well after the rise, fall, and succession of Blu Ray....ie at least ten years from now.

Someone save this thread and prove me wrong

[Post edited by Bosshog7 on Mar 25, 2008]

Well one of the reasons DVD was so successful was because downloads were not really an option back then from studios or amazon, etc. Now we have these options on the horizon plus these supposed USB key alternatives and who knows what else. It's a lot harder now than ever to have ONE dominant format but even if downloads one day have the same picture and audio quality as a disk for a good price, nothing beats being able to just pick the disk from a shelf and throwing it into the player.

Different technologies for different demographics I guess.

Remember not everyone can afford the super home theatres that some of you have. Most people are happy with a big screen and listen through the TV's speakers.

[Post edited by Falcon01 on Mar 25, 2008]

Quote:
Why don't people understand that there will always be a market for physical discs?

I would generally agree with that statement, you might even venture to say that there will always be a market for physical records and tapes, but the same was said of CD's before the whole MP3
I-pod revolution and Flash memory devices set off a wave of downloads.

There are a lot more people downloading and listening to streaming content nowadays, and CD sales are declining because of it.

Not as much of the psychological bond with a physical disc, an Ipod can store more music than shelves loaded with CD's .

People will start to wonder why they wasted shelf space for discs that you might only watch one or two of occasionally.

I have piles of VHS Tapes that I haven't watched in years, maybe I should go dig out something from that pile and watch it tonight before it becomes obsolete and I need to double-dip and buy it again on yet another format.

Oooooh! 128 GB! Now I can store my entire collection of... 5 HD movies! As I've said before, downloading for the next several years has a possibility of replacing physical rentals, but not buying. In order for downloading to replace purchases of discs, devices which can store hundreds of HD movies will need to be available at reasonable prices. They will also have to be compatible so that people can add their current DVD collections. As well, downloads will have to offer all of the same feature that discs currently have, including multiple sound options, interactivity, and supplemental material. Until then (I think 10 years is a good estimate), it won't happen. On top of that, studios will never support it if there is any possibility of pirating reaching the same level as it has with music, where millions of people download their music without paying one cent. If you buy movies, downloads are not a viable alternative.

[Post edited by interplanetaryspy on Mar 26, 2008]

Falcon01,

I can't help wondering. Did you see that the article you linked to has DVDTOWN.com as source? Why not link to the article on this site?

Just a thought.

Quote:
Oooooh! 128 GB! Now I can store my entire collection of... 5 HD movies!

Yeah, 5 HD movies on something as small and portable as a single compact flash or SD card. Compare the amount of space 20 of those those take up as compared to 100 DVD cases.

People have a need to collect physical items. That is one of the main reasons why I believe that downloads will not replace discs anytime soon. I believe it will happen one day, but I'm thinking somewhere along the lines of 10 years or more. Look how confused the average consumer is about high definition (the mass confusion is staggering, even if we ignore the format war), there is no way the majority of these people are going to start downloading their movies. I just don't see it happening.

And what about the people with several hundred SDVDs? Do you have any idea how much storage they would need to store their mass collections of DVDs, and their ever-growing HD library? A lot of us would need servers in our home with 1TB or more. There are too many limitations today.

One major telling factor is the fact that mp3s have not fully replaced CDs.

Henning I didn't see the article here for some reason or I would have just commented on that instead. I'm a big fan of the "Get first post!"

About the USB key thing...they have to come up with MUCH bigger keys for this to be attractive to be people. Like some of you have mentioned on an iPod you can store 10,000 songs or more. On a USB key at 128 GB we can probably store 6 hidef movies. Big deal.

EDIT: I changed the link in the original post.

[Post edited by Falcon01 on Mar 26, 2008]

Quote:
Oooooh! 128 GB! Now I can store my entire collection of... 5 HD movies!

What you people seem to forget is that the portable devices are not HD, (such as PSP, DS, iPod, etc.) so the 128 GB flash memory is perfect to store SD-DVD movies and take them with you whenever you want. I personally enjoy movies everywhere I go, doctor's office, work lounge, even when stuck in traffic. So (for home) if Toshiba or anybody comes up with a "super up-convert" that rivals Blu-ray and (on the road) companies come up with 128 GB flash memory cards for me to take my movies anywhere. Forget BD, I'm with downloads and SD-DVD.

wii-lite, this for you:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKiIroiCvZ0



[Post edited by Skyhawk on Mar 26, 2008]

Quote:
Forget BD, I'm with downloads and SD-DVD.

Well for cars and portable devices, DVD is good enough as you mentioned but for home theatre nothing beats high definition movies right now so it looks like BD is the way to go in that regard.

All depends on your needs and circumstances.

what is considered mass market?
You do realize that trend is going up against hundreds of billions of dollars in rentals and manufacturing plants. They won't just sit back and let "memory card renting" (wtf? lame) take over.

Quote:
wii-lite, this for you:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKiIroiCvZ0

That's why I'll be watching movies on my iPhone and not a "f***ing telephone".