Why digital downloads are going to rule all in the future

When you can click on something like a movie, a song, a picture, whatever, and it's instant. That's when digital media will rule over physical media. It's not that far off. In fact, it's already here, just not in the scope of todays internet.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science/article3689881.ece

Download speed is only a very small part of the issue. If that was all that mattered, downloads would certainly take over. Instead, there are issues of storage, features, quality, and piracy, which all need to be dealt with before downloads can ever replace the purchase of physical discs. The first step for downloads is taking over the rental market, which is much more feasible right now. Downloads won't be the standard for 10 years.

Resistance IS futile...

Let's not forget choice. While the average viewer probably only cares about new American blockbusters, there are other people who enjoy being able to choose among the hundreds of thousands of movies from practically every country of the world, spanning over a hundred years of movie history. And many of these movies are currently available either on tape or disc. Do you really think you're going to get that kind of choice from a download service, even in ten years or so when Internet speeds are higher (and cheaper) for everyone?

John

This is really a silly argument. There will always be physical media and we will always have the luxury of "choice". And why? Because it's always about the dollars. Do you actually think entertainment studios would just drop the opportunity to make millions off of physical media just because we would have the option to download? I know all of us nerds here just assume everyone has a computer or DVR in their home when in fact there are still millions of people that own neither. So, for the cheap, poor family that owns the cheap DVD player it would be stupid to make downloading exclusive. It's probably best to "think" before you assume, because you know what "assume" does.

Good point, Tim, and the one I was trying (poorly, I admit) to make. It will be longer than ten years, maybe a hundred, before downloads are cheap enough and comprehensive enough to replace physical media. And even then many people will want to own something they can lay their hands on. Folks like Microsoft would love to see us all go the download route, but they know there are far too many roadblocks at the moment and for the foreseeable future for it to replace anything we've already got.

John

Think about the increase in profit margine when they are basically selling us nothing. They have no production cost, yet are able to leave prices where the are at today. They don't give up any amount of money, they infact INCREASE the amount of money coming in by eliminating production costs.

Does everybody always forget about storage space? They do have to pay for the harddrives, the optical connection speed and the techs to keep everything running. Plus the bandwidth needed for 20 million people to download a new movie without problem, plus some kind of streaming video software that is instant without delays, a modem that never fails or is reset, more capable wireless routers, enough storage space to hold multiple copies of the same movie for backup, someone to put those movies on the hard drives and check for inconsistencies. A wireless network that supports like 100MB/s, not 100Mb's, for on the go dl'ing. Problems with conflicting software, different players and codecs (sometimes unstable). the list goes on and on.
Not only that but you would have to have a good system in place to take care of hackers. You would actually lose sales due to the lack of tangibility of the file. One of the main deterrents of pirates is just not being able to find whatever they are looking for. The tangibility of the product is the first deterrent, then comes all the anti-piracy crap.
My god, can you honestly believe that digital is going to take over when itunes and the like have been out for many years and still not been able to grow by much.

don't even bother with hard drives, store your media in your head!
brain implants are right around the corner, just you wait and see

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[Post edited by theprof00 on Apr 6, 2008]

oops

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[Post edited by theprof00 on Apr 6, 2008]

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Think about the increase in profit margine when they are basically selling us nothing. They have no production cost, yet are able to leave prices where the are at today. They don't give up any amount of money, they infact INCREASE the amount of money coming in by eliminating production costs.

Ok, did you read mine or John's posts? What about all those people that can't afford to have the luxury of digital downloading and just have a good ol' standard DVD player? Do you actually think Hollywood would be that unfair to not include the possible millions of consumers that would be in that exact sistuation? I mean, Hollywood would stand to lose how many millions of dollars if they made a decision like that?

Quote:
What about all those people that can't afford to have the luxury of digital downloading and just have a good ol' standard DVD player?

Also, don't forget about people like me who have the money and all the toys but still prefer the option of buying hard media.

Roku introduce $100 Netflix player.

Currently its only SD content due to Netflix however the player is HD enabled.

http://www.electronista.com/articles/08/05/20/roku.netflix.player/