BLU-RAY HAS FIVE (that's right...5) YEARS LEFT.

At first it took me as a surprise, then given the source... I realized: They know more about these stuff than I do (or the rest of the 'consumers') given volatility in technology... both in (cheap) cost, and advancement. Not to mention whatever "super-secret" research these electro-companies are developing for the next gen.

So what the hell do I know! (absolutely nothing)...

Samsung: "Blu-ray has 5 years left" INTERVIEW: Andy Griffiths, director of consumer electronics, Samsung UK
http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/news.phtml/17399/18423/samsung-blu-ray-5-years-left.phtml

It's just Samsung propaganda to stir up interest in their new, ground breaking technology or whatever. Let's even say that in 5 years, this OLED is the new standard for HD, it would take at least another 10 before it became the product of choice in homes. How many people still don't have HDTVs, and how long has that been around? And Joe Average who finally buys an HDTV and Blu player is not going to turn around and buy something else for a good long time, because he waited quite a while to buy into Blu as well.

Well I can only see wealthy early adaptors paying $20,000 in the first 3 to 5 yrs for a 50 inch oled, when the rest of the world is enjoying 50 inch lcd, plasma, and flat dlp tv's for $1,o00.

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[Post edited by tony1569 on Sep 5, 2008]

I bet that even standard DVD has more than 5 years left.

Standard DVD unfortunately is starting to loose momentum. Rogers video stores now stock a healthy selection of Blu-Ray Titles. Blockbuster Canada has about the same amount. So how long before the DVD's start to dissappear. I notice along with these two chains migrating, a lot of titles have been deleted from their rental database. I mean I go to the store the other day to find Short Circuit 2 the other day, and they tell me it's no longer available!

Short Circuit 2 on Roger's rental database: http://www.rogersplus.ca/movie.asp?mid=13786

Now whether a particular rental store has it depends on the size of the store.

Earlier this morning I walked past 3 bins filled above the rim with $1 to $2 VHS tapes. VHS has been losing momentum for over 10 years now. DVD may have peeked as far as penetration and sales go, but the format simply begins to move to a different buying demographic (the ones still buying VHS tapes today). Since Blu-ray players also play standard DVDs, this might also cause the old format to say around a bit longer along side of the new format.

I seriously doubt that the market for standard DVDs would suddenly dissappear within the next 5 years. And downloads? Non issue, at least for the USA which has a one of the lowest broadband penetration rates for a developed country.

What a dumb statement in an even dumber article. The guy must have had a few drinks before making his comments because they don't make any sense.

5 years? Please. DVDs have been around for a lot longer than that, and DVDs will stick around for a long time still since surprise! Blu-ray players will play them!

Here's the thing. Downloads aren't cheap, I can buy DVDs for the same titles cheaper than the downloads I've seen on things like iTunes. Downloads can also be easily erased if you have a crash or something. DVDs are much more reliable, but apparently these suits are either blind or they just want people to cash in on downloads, too.

In fact, I even have a bunch of titles with Digital Copies that I never use. So really, I can see it appealing to some people, but most will be happy with discs. It kind of reminds me of how Divx was being pushed to replace DVDs and we all know how well that turned out.

Quote:
Downloads can also be easily erased if you have a crash or something. DVDs are much more reliable, but apparently these suits are either blind or they just want people to cash in on downloads, too.

I agree that physical disc will probably be around much longer than five more years. However, if downloading becomes a steady, reliable choice for some, I don't think you'd have to worry about losing data due to a crash. Most likely there will be an account setup that will keep track of your download purchases. If a crash were to happen and everything is lost, not to worry because you could go to your account and re-download your purchases. I know of software companies that do this right now. I have an account with Adobe and if I get a new computer or have a hard drive crash, I simply go to the Adobe site, log into my account and re-download any software I purchased.

I don't use digital copy myself, but I have neices and nephews who cannot live without them. Everywhere they go they have cellphone, Mp3 player, and portable gaming device. All their friends are crazy about this portable way to watch tv, but I would go nuts looking at a little screen and watching Ironman or some other movie.
I love my 46" Sharp Aquos and watching HD programming (hockey season coming soon!!).
Youtube and digital copy with movie rentals on their Iphone is what seems to be the norm today, hence the drop in DVD sales.