Could a recession be fatal for Blu-ray?

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In what is no surprise, Andy Parsons, the chairman of the US Blu-ray Disc Association, remains confident and remind people "Everyone thinks of DVD as an overnight success, but it actually took several years for that overnight success to happen,"

It is absolutely correct that DVD took a number of years to become the standard movie playing technology. Two of the things that delayed DVD's success is probably hampering Blu-Ray's success. Cost and reluctance to repurchase movies.

The first issue 'cost' is starting to be addressed player can be had for a reasonable price although still a lot more expensive than a DVD player.

New film releases see the Blu-ray version with a premium although if you shop around this premium can be reduced to something more reasonable also. However the majority of Blu-ray releases are 'back catalogue' releases and here the premium is massive compared to standard def version. Sure you can by ex-rental or second hand, but you're still paying more than what standard def new would cost. Studios need to have a different price model for catalogue releases.

Now for the differences that are giving the BDA's Blu-ray a difficult birth compared to DVD.

DVD fought to replace VHS. It offered more convenience, reduced size, improved picture quality and as long as you looked after it the picture quality didn't deteriorate. Blu-ray offers better sound and improved picture quality.
The improved sound is not going to influence the average household becuse they don't have the equipment or desire to take advantage of it.

The improved picture quality is only there if they have the TV to display it. It can also be reduced by the quality of the transfer or type of filming (American gangster). To some extent upscaling also narrows the gap to anyone other than videophiles.

DVD did not have other technologies for movie deliverance emerging at the time it was trying to gain acceptance. There are a number facing Blu-ray.

When DVD came into this world the economy was at its peak with disposable income just looking for something to be thrown at. If anything describes the economy that faces Blu-ray, the previous statement is not one of them.

I also think Blu-ray will survive and prosper, but I don't think you should compare it to DVD, because I don't think it will perform anything like DVD did.

That is not the fault of Blu-ray - it is purely down to timing.

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[Post edited by Scotsman on Oct 23, 2008 - CDT 7:04 AM]

Recession is not the name of the killer of Blu-Ray. Blu-Ray will not survive much past 2010. Cable Wideband is gonna kill it dead. We, the few who are embracing Blu-Ray now for what it is, have already been proven to be the extreme minority. As HD DVD has proven, the extremem minority cannot survive. Joe Average (not plumber) is the majority. Joe is also a Comcast subscriber. In 2010 when Comcast's wideband servivce will be in fullswing and Joe can stream any movie he wants in full HD with lossless 7.1 surround audio, Joe will have little to no use for physical media. By then a business model will be in place that allows Joe to buy a movie and stream it anytime he wants. Joe will point his Comcast remote at the cable box, and Joe will be bathed in all the HD goodness he can soak up.

That of course is a mighty fine sounding prospect. If it will be that simple I don't know for sure, but i'd like to think it will be. But I do know that wideband cable will in fact offer the speed needed to stream movies in full HD with lossless audio. And it's here now in some area of the country. The future is NOW (in some areas.)

The future is just another choice and not a hosile take-over of the physical media industry. If it were true that downstreaming or downloading were to take over the industry then we would have seen CD's gone years ago due to iPods, zunes and other download media. There are always going to be people, like myself, that enjoy and/or prefer to have the physical media.

Just because us nerds around here understand downstreaming and/or downloading, we tend to forget there are still millions of people that don't even own a computer, yet they know how to put a disc in a player. Let's not forget the many people that have basic cable packages that don't let them even access "on-demand" or other higher-cost features. These people need to be accounted for, too, and it is the reason why physical media will always be available.

As far as a recession killing Blu-ray, I really wouldn't worry. We're talking about businesses that have made it through other recession periods time and again. They have invested far too much to just throw in the towel over some tough economic times. Hopefully, due to slow sales meaning low demand, it may drop the prices and finally benefit the consumer. However, we may not see this effect until after the first quarter of next year, accounting for the fact that this holiday season might be the worst for retail in many years. Nevertheless, there are really good deals on Amazon if you take the time to hunt them down.

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Joe Average (not plumber) is the majority.

But what would Joe the Plumber thing about this though???? Hmmmm

LOL@KungFu

Well said though, Tim! I couldn't agree more.

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[Post edited by CH0SEN1 on Oct 23, 2008 - CDT 11:17 AM]

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The future is just another choice and not a hosile take-over of the physical media industry.

That was well said, Tim! But I think it was already been proven with HD DVD, the choice is not up to the consumer (That's a whole different argument I would be willing to argue in a different thread.) These big corporations are about cutting costs and increasing their profit margins. What's gonna happen when the studios decide to cut their costs by eliminating physical media in favor of digital distribution? The minority of people that care about physical media I don't think is gonna be enough to make a difference when the time comes. And I think the time is coming MUCH sooner than alot of people realize. Especially with the broad introduction of wideband cable internet access less than two years away. With the elimination of manufacturing, packaging, and retail space there will be there certainly will be little to no reason for studios to NOT go digital. Purely digital i think is more than two years away, but again I don't think it's more than 10 years away. It may not even be through a singular entity like Comcast. We may see digital boxes from the studios themselves. that do nothing except stream content completely seperate from a digital cable box. That would be interesting indeed.

Studios will never suddenly abandon the physical format in favor of cable/Internet distribution until everyone has access and adaquate bandwidth to run at least 3 to 5 HD TVs at a time. This will mean a HUGE infrastructure investment in the backbone as well. We're talking huge $$$, and something that will be delayed if the recession proves to be long lasting.

It will be years until everyone in the real America, the America containing Pro-Americans, even has slow, crappy broadband.

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[Post edited by Skyhawk on Oct 23, 2008 - CDT 2:09 PM]

Spoonard,

What Skyhawk and I said ^^

I understand your enthusiasm for the whole idea, but you need to put the crack pipe down. You do get those commercials on the tele warning everyone to get a digital converter box by Feb. 2009, yes? Do you think the FDC would make this announcement if they didn't know millions of consumers out there have no cable or satellite? Trust me, I still have friends and family that are in that exact boat because they either don't care for cable or it's too costly. Two of my family members don't even own a computer simply because they don't feel they want or need one. However, everyone I know has either a CD and/or DVD player. And don't think for a second that I have not considered dumping my cable because I'm sick and tired of 999 channels of nothing! Most of cable IS crap and quite expensive considering what you get for it. Not to mention, you don't think your local cable provider won't make you pay an extra, premium price to access downstreaming on top of what you pay for the movie?

Look, I love how we are all going to get really cool things in the future, but there will always be the consumer that is either out of reach or out of touch with all the cool new toys. I watch a lot of "Next World" on the Science channel and someday we will wear a contact lens and be able to watch a movie or tv from it at anytime. However, it doesn't mean the older and more affordable items for millions of consumers will disappear. As they say, progress takes time, and in this case I would count on decades before narrowing it down to a small number of years.

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[Post edited by Tim Raynor on Oct 23, 2008 - CDT 2:45 PM]

The choice has always been up to the consumer. Do you think that if BD was being outsold 3 to 1 that Blu-ray would've been in a position to sway WB? NO, bottom line is that not even a year after WB went Blu we are seeing player prices hit as low as $250 and in some cases $200. To be honest the PS3 killed HD-DVD. We all had a voice in the matter. Just because Blu-ray won you can't say we never had a choice. My choice was I couldn't at the time justify having both formats and when I bought the PS3 it never crossed my mind about movies just games but the unexpected bonus was it did play BD movies.

When I got the PS3 I also looked at an HD-DVD player (HD-A1) and it was selling for $500. $500 just to play movies? I don't think so. By the time prices were coming down Blu-ray had not only caught up but passed HD-DVD in disk sales coupled with the fact that just about every major studio was behind Blu-ray. Now with that said, Blu-ray has a long way to go. In some cases it's still not a finished format but the movies play and the sound is great. That's enough for me.

I completely agree with "spoonard"

There is this school of thought that the recession is actually going to boost sales and rentals of blu discs. Imagine the cost of a family of 5 visiting the theater to watch a film. (including gas there and back)

As for CD's and Mp3's, for me it's the perfect example of exactly why physical media is going to die. Audiences around the world chose ease of use and storage capability over quality of sound (even though now days they preety much sound the same comming from a crappy little capacitor as the ones found on iPods, zunes, zens, etc etc)

The Only reason you're still see CD's on shelves is because of pure numbers. Simply, the Recording industry makes more money per unit than it does with mp3's. Sales have plummeted, but not below cost of packaging and distribution, so there's still some life left in those shelves.
They recently tried to raise the percentage they get from iTunes (which, right now, is making just enough money to support it's self running, has no clean revenue actually, it's just a vehicle for selling iPods and apple TV's) and apple clearly said, if that happens, we cannot maintain the store anymore and they simply denied to raise the price to cover that cost. If they accepted, u would've seen cd's disappear quite soon.

Same thing with movies is happening, although a move, unlike audio, has more variables.
For me quality comes first. Yes, in the near future, there will be a broadband connection allowing the enormous bit stream of data that blu requires to be transferred very fast, but for now, those gimmicky-looking pseudo HD stream-rentals sound, and look below average for me.

But then again, im not your "average joe"