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HD media sells half of DVD in first two years

Software units sold.
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By Henning Molbaek
 FIRST ONLINE Feb 20, 2008
HD media have tough times ahead when you compare software units for the first two years on the market.

In SD DVD's first two years (1997 and 1998) on the market, 16.3 million software units were sold. HD media (Blu-ray and HD DVD) sold 8.3 million.

When you look at hardware sales, it is another story. Here there are no gaps between the formats. This is most likely credited to the price wars that have been going on between HD DVD and Blu-ray, which made an HD-capable player available for only $99 in year two.

Many analysts point to a lot of factors for the lower numbers for HD media. Fewer people own HDTVs (26.5 million) compared to standard DVD-capable TVs (100 million.) Another factor is that many people don't see the same difference between SD and HD as they did with VHS and DVD.

However, studio execs remain optimistic and BD software sales alone have reached 1.5 million so far in 2008. Last year the same number was reached in June. With one HD format they hope to close the gap rather sooner than later later.

The next years will tell, but with DVD still going strong and movie downloads around the corner, tough times are ahead. No doubt.

Source: Adam Media Research, DisplaySearch and Nielsen Media Research.

News Comments ::


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Wednesday, February 20, 2008
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Member since:
February 2008
VHS to DVD was a revolution!
DVD to HD DVD/Blu-Ray is an evolution...
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
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Member since:
October 2007
Quote:
Many analysts point at a lot of factors for the lower numbers for HD media. Less people own HDTVs (26.5 million) compared to standard DVD capable TVs (100 million.) Another factor is that many people don't see the same difference between SD and HD as they did with VHS and DVD.


Of course many analysts also have been saying that the format war itself has been a big factor in impacting hi-def media sales by either confusing customers or making potential buyers sit on the sidelines until a winner in the format war was decided (those apparently scared to pick the wrong format). With attach rates so low compared to standard DVD at the same point in their introduction, there may be more truth to this than one would first think - given that the hardware is a small cost compared to buying the media itself.

All this and considering the limited market that high-def media can be marketed to (only the minority of homes with HDTVs) compared to that of standard DVD, I'm actually surprised HD media sales have done as well as they have.

I guess we'll know by the end of the year.
[Post edited by Skyhawk on Feb 20, 2008]
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
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Member since:
January 2008
Quote:
potential buyers sit on the sidelines until a winner in the format war was decided (those apparently scared to pick the wrong format).


The pricier format won, I think most people still wont commit until players are lower in prices and lets not forget a stable profile other than a PS3. Blu-ray should come out with a combo format, that way when you do buy a movie in SD you are also adding to your HD collection as this would be advantageous down the road when getting the hardware, like myself.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
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Member since:
May 2007
Why do they keep talking about movie downloads around the corner? They're not "around the corner"...they're not even down the road! And if they're referring to SD movie downloads they're here right now, I have access to them included with my Netflix account and I haven't even bothered.

More people saw the difference [minimal] between VHS and DVD than saw the difference [major] between DVD and HD media...that makes sense.

When DVD came out, everybody with a TV was potentially a customer. With HD media, there are still few potential customers, but those numbers are growing fast. HDTVs are still costly, and as prices fall demand for HD media will steadily climb.

I'd say HD media is doing very well all things considered.
[Post edited by JPSofCA on Feb 20, 2008]
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
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Member since:
August 2007
JPSofCA digital downloads are actually here now, just very limited. Both XBox 360 and PS3 supports them Apple TV is doing their own version of Video on Demand with HD also. Now that Toshiba has more time to spare with their storage and computer development, which with the way they handled HD DVD must be a minute increase, you'll also see more developments coming from that end, and this was one of the things mentioned by Toshiba reps yesterday. The only thing holding back Digital Downloads in HD is the bandwidth it takes and the storage, storage is actually fairly moot because even now there are any number of 1TB+ HDD, that is the same as 40+ HD films, and almost all units capable of Digital Downloads are capable of portable HDD expansion, which has gotten fairly cheap, for the price of 16 HD movies you can buy a portable Hard Drive which will hold 40+ movies, also the cost of the Digital Downloads should be cheaper due to not having to pay an arm and a leg to proprietary holdings like Blu-ray and HD DVD to get them published.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
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Member since:
February 2008
The format war must have been a major factor in this, I can just look at my situation and those around me. Out of 10 friends that have HD TV's and are movie buffs, I was the only one who took a chance and jumped in, the rest of them have been sitting on the sidelines...until now that is!
[Post edited by Onyxx on Feb 20, 2008]
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
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Member since:
August 2007
I think they're forgetting the biggest hurdle they have. Blu-ray doesn't have a migration path from dvd to blu-ray for buying movies. You either buy your movie on dvd and play it in any player you own, or it's tied to your kid's PS3. Another option is buying two copies of the same movie (dvd + blu-ray). I guess the final option would be to replace all of your dvd players with PS3s and hopefully the dvd system in the SUV has external hookups and a power converter to power the PS3.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
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Member since:
November 2007
true.
not to mention, those JQP folks who picked an HD-DVD player are likely not going to commit to the other format right now depending on how much they spent at first.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
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Member since:
January 2008
I dont buy the bullshit that the average joe cant see the difference between DVD and Hi Def. Could be he only has a 720p tv, or he simply doesnt CARE, thats possible, but once you have a 1080 flat screen, mr magoo with two forks in his eye sockets could see the difference.

Now whether that difference, if the prices came down, is enticing enough, I don't know. I have an older firend, about 65, lot of vhs, lot of dvds, could afford a flat screen and br player, just doesn't want the trouble.
[Post edited by comicgeekoid on Feb 20, 2008]
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
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Member since:
January 2008
This is to be expected. Blu ray will not become the 'new' DVD. In fact its likely that the two will live side by side. Blu ray will not do as well as DVD because it requires an HDTV. Without an HDTV it's pointless.

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