Hettrick Blog: 3-D could be bigger than HD! (& will drive Blu-ray sales)

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Guest Blog Commentary by SCOTT HETTRICK
(from his website: Hollywood in High-Def)

About Scott Hettrick:
Industry insights from Scott Hettrick, a veteran Hollywood journalist who spent more than 20 years leading the discussions on the development, distribution and marketing of home entertainment programming and interactive technologies. On "Hettrick Blog", Hettrick will provide personal insight and commentary focused on current news and events around pre-recorded high-definition home entertainment.

3D could be bigger than HD, and Blu-ray will be one of the primary beneficiaries and drivers of 3D.

That is the forecast of Mike Fisher, senior consultant at Futuresource Consulting. "3D is back," Fisher said at the recent Driving Digital Content 2009 FutureSource Market Focus Session in London entitled The 3D Landscape.

With "every single key player and key element" in theatrical, home entertainment, TV, PC, and videogame markets "vested" and "ready to support the 3D story" and "drive 3D forward," Fisher said 3D represents a "massive opportunity."

"One could argue that this is even more of a big opportunity than the high-definition story."
Already, 16% of U.S. adults have seen a 3D movie at a theater, with 40% preferring 3D to 2D, and 50% of adults saying that special glasses would not deter them from purchasing a 3D TV.

Fisher reminded the audience of the potential, with 200 million TVs sold every year around the world. "Let's not forget the PC side and the gaming side; gaming consoles is another factor that will come into play as well."

The relationship between 3D and Blu-ray will be reciprocal, with 3D not only driving sales of Blu-ray, but Blu-ray will be a "very significant driver for 3D moving forward."

"A key driver of 3D and one of the key players is the Blu-ray format and the BDA (Blu-ray Disc Association) standard moving forward," Fisher said.

Those standards for home video and TV are now being developed and finalized during what Fisher called the introductory phase of 3D from 2009-2011, as he noted that 3D has become the leading story at every major industry trade show this year.

"Quite a few of the large TV manufacturers will begin to seed the market with 3D-enabled TVs in 2010," he said. After which the market "really ramps up in 2012" when "standards will be organized by then" and the "broadcasting industry comes a lot more on stream with 3D."

About 12% of U.S. households will have 3D-enabled TVs by 2012, he said.

Meanwhile, the theatrical 3D market is the primary distributor of 3D, where movies such as "Monsters Vs Aliens" generated two-thirds of its opening weekend revenue from 3D screens.

More than 30 3D movies are slated for theatrical release over the next couple of years.

Video Resource <— Mike Fisher's 3D presentation at the 2009 FutureSource Market Focus Session in London, entitled The 3D Landscape.
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(bonus article below)

Hollywood Finds Depth: 3-D Boom »

"Hollywood is done with being shallow; it wants depth. 3-D depth, to be specific.

3-D filmmaking — the process of mounting two simultaneously filming cameras side-by-side and then superimposing the images on top of each other to create the illusion of depth - is looking at a comeback. At the recent National Association of Broadcasters show in Last Vegas, everyone from the major film studios to music-video production companies to the National Basketball Association displayed eye-popping examples of films and clips capturing artificial depth. Silly 3-D glasses were actually kind of hip over in the high desert.

The technology is far from new. 3-D was first tried in the 1950s, and later popped up in horror films starring Vincent Price. Even auteur Andy Warhol tried his hand at the tools. But filming even brief segments with two cameras was cumbersome and expensive; the cost of shooting an entire 3-D film was prohibitive for most projects.

But now, the alchemic effects of digital technology and the Internet are changing the business of adding dimensions. Miley Cyrus and U2 have put out successful 3-D films; kids love 'em. Big-name directors including James Cameron have 3-D projects in the works - the hot rumor in Hollywood is that George Lucas is working to re-release the entire Star Wars saga in 3-D.

The good news for small businesses is that the field is ripe with growing companies developing innovative solutions for 3-D's many challenges. Take Iconix Video Inc. in Goleta, Calif. It has created a nifty, super-small, high-definition imaging system that's going great guns in 3-D.

Company founder Wayne Upton, a video engineer with a background in medical imaging, got the idea for the technology while on assignment with a large Japanese electronics maker in 2003. The company asked him to solve a problem with a high-definition camera. Upton found a solution in about 48 hours, and was so taken by his idea that he decided to start a company based on the discovery.

Who's cashing in on the 3-D boom?
Starting with a $1.2 million investment from venture-capital fund DFJ Frontier and others, Upton and his small company went into production with a high-def camera no bigger than an egg. The unit quickly racked up $1 million in sales based solely on word of mouth. It's easy to see why: The Iconix camera can be mounted just about anywhere - the side of a car, the end of a pool cue - to get once-impossible shots.

Upton's 28-person company has craftily partnered with other small businesses to expand its product line. It uses a clever two-camera mount from 3-D firm 3ality that lets directors precisely calibrate the crucial distance between the cameras. Iconix then uses off-the-shelf hard drives for storage and third-party post-production software to essentially create a complete 3-D system for little up-front investment.

"We believe it is the first end-to-end 3-D production environment that is within reach of just about any professional production company," said Bruce Long, Iconix's CEO.

Image quality in my limited demos was serviceable. A shot from a soaring glider, a flyover of a tropical island, and even a test section from the original Star Wars showed reasonable depth and none of the attendant disorientation - and often, motion sickness - common with 3-D.

But let's be clear here: The technology is no IMAX. The illusion of immersion is much more advanced in other systems. The technology favored by James Cameron, which was developed by cinematographer Vincent Pace, offers significantly more depth and higher image quality, to my eye.

But it's hard to argue with the price. Iconix cameras start at just $6,000 - way less than a tenth the cost of traditional HD cameras, which can run six figures or more.

With Hollywood facing stiff new competition from video games and other formats, hype about 3-D ran deep at the NAB show. Iconix's executives bullishly predicted that within the next few years, at least 30% of movies would be shot in 3-D.

But others, myself included, have more modest expectations.

"I think the hurdle that filmmakers face - and what will always keep this a niche technology - is that it is by definition cumbersome to shoot, even though great lengths have been made to simplify it," said Doug Liman, a Hollywood director and producer whose credits include Swingers, The Bourne Identity and Mr. and Mrs. Smith.

But despite the limitations, even Lyman believes that this time, 3-D is here to stay.

"I do think it will be part of our moviegoing experience in the future," he said, "and we will have one to two 3-D films at the multiplex at any given time."

By Jonathan Blum, CNN Money (April 30, 2008)

—> Video Clip - the Smallest 3D Camera »
(two-and-a-half minute video related to this story)
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Walt Disney is going 3D at Comic-Con

For its July 23 panel, the studio will bring out directors Robert Zemeckis and Tim Burton and Tron producers Sean Bailey and Steve Lisberger, and will show 3D footage from films such as Alice in Wonderland, Tron and A Christmas Carol. Disney says it will be the first time 3D footage will be shown at Comic-Con.

Hayao Miyazaki, John Lasseter and other animation greats will be on hand for Dinsey July 24 panel which will highlight the upcoming 3D double feature of Toy Story and Toy Story 2, as well as Disney/Pixar's Toy Story 3 (in 3D, in theaters June 18, 2010).

Source: Chris Tribbey (for Home Media Daily)

Previous DVDTOWN News...
—> Theater-quality Advanced 3-D Blu-ray Discs to go on sale in 2011 » (The first commercial releases of advanced 3-D Blu-ray Discs expected no sooner than 2011, according to Futuresource Consulting.)

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